Making the Case: TCU and Boise State both to the BCS

As we head into mid November things across the Football Bowl Subdivision are really heating up. Outside of who will be in the National Championship game, their is no bigger debate then who will receive auto bids to BCS games, and who deserves at large births. And as the games have unfolded in October and the first week of November, I believe that it is becoming more and more likely that both the Texas Christian Horned Frogs and the Boise State Broncos will be featured in BCS Bowl game match ups.

Over the past five years the landscape of college football has really changed. Former power house programs like Michigan and Florida State are complete dumpster fires. Teams like Miami and Nebraska are pulling themselves out of holes similar to what the ‘Noles and Wolverines are in now. Adding to that, this year is especially unique in which all the top BCS conferences are pretty soft in the middle. The SEC sees a pretty significant drop off after Florida and Alabama. Proof of this can be seen in the fact that both have locked up their spots in the SECCG by November 7th. With a full three weeks of conference games yet to play. Oklahoma was destroyed by the injury bug, and no other Big XII team has stepped up to be a strong number 2 to Texas, to push for an at large BCS game (the second highest ranked Big XII team in the BCS rankings is Oklahoma State at #19). Ohio State and Iowa line up Saturday in a defacto Big Ten championship game with a trip to the Rose Bowl on the line. The loser of that game will drop out of the BCS top 14 (the spot that any non BCS automatic qualifier needs to be ranked to be eligible for any at large birth).

The point is, that their is a void in the top half of teams throughout the nation. And that void has been filled by the non BCS conference power house. This weeks top 20 of the BCS rankings feature #4 TCU, #6 Boise State, #15 Houston, and #16 Utah. Now any non BCS conference team ranked in the top 8 of the BCS gets an auto bid to a BCS game. But no more then one non BCS conference team will receive an auto bid. Which leaves any other team, like Boise State, subject to the same at large process as second place teams in the big 6 conferences.

My current BCS Bowl Projection looks like this…

Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big Ten) vs Oregon (PAC 10)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (at large) vs Cincinnati (Big East)
Fiesta Bowl: USC (at large) vs Boise State (at large)
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs TCU (auto bid)
National Championship: Florida (#1) vs Texas (#2)

A lot of people don’t understand the BCS selection process. Now let me explain further as to how this will go down, and why Boise State deserves that at large birth. The National Championship game is obviously filled first with the #1 and #2 ranked teams. Now the Sugar Bowl will get the first pick to replace SEC Champion #1 Florida, who normally when not going to the National Championship game would go to the Sugar. They will without a doubt take Alabama. The Fiesta will then get to replace its Big XII champion Texas. And without any qualifying second Big XII team the Fiesta will happily select 2 loss USC. The Rose will be filled out with its tie in champions of the Big Ten and PAC 10. ACC winner Georgia Tech will accept their tie in to the Orange Bowl.

If you’ve had trouble following so far, this is when things start getting real fun…

So now we move to the BCS at large selection process. The order in which teams are selected go by what bowl game is played closest to the National Championship game (By date of the game played) and then down the line to what game is played farthest away. So for the remaining 3 spots, the order will be Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.

Now out of those 3 spots one has to be auto bid TCU, and one has to be Big East Champion Cincinnati. The Big East has no official tie in to a specific BCS Bowl, only a contract that states they must be chosen.

So the Orange is put into a position of take one of the two auto bids, or select one of the two remaining possible at large teams (their will be more then two, I don’t see anyone else being a viable option, at this time) the highest ranked non automatic qualifier Boise State or second place ACC team Miami, who should finish with two losses. Now the Orange in no way shape or form will take Miami to play fellow ACC team Georgia Tech. I believe in this scenario they will take TCU. A match up of TCU vs Georgia Tech give the Orange Bowl a solid match up of teams the undefeated #3 ranked TCU who ranks #7 in rush defense vs Georgia Tech’s #2 ranked rush offense. The whole point is to generate story lines, and a match up that will bring in dollar bills.

Which will move us to the Fiesta Bowl. Where the Miami vs Boise State debate begins. In any other year, before this, I would say that a choice between a national power like Miami and the smurf turfers, for a BCS birth, would result in a choice of the Hurricanes 100% of the time. But this year I think things will be different. On face value Miami would seem to have an edge. A lot comes with the name Miami, and even with two loses when you line up what would be both teams 3 most impressive wins on the season Miami would be on top. With wins vs Georgia Tech, Oklahoma, and Florida State the resume would seem better then Boise States wins vs Oregon, Fresno St, and Nevada. Financially, I think the Fiesta is better off selecting the Broncos. And the money is what matters most. I don’t recall exactly, but I don’t think Miami traveled that well to Arizona when they played Ohio State, in 2003. I certainly remember that was more of a home game for the Bucks. Boise State fans will travel well to Arizona. I think TV wise Boise State has closed the gap on other national powers, so I think the money gap has closed, at least in the Fiesta’s sake. I think the Sugar, if the Fiesta takes the Big East champ, they will take Miami over Boise State to face Alabama. But you never know. Their will be a lot of outrage if Miami is taken over higher ranked and undefeated Boise State. BSU is looked at in a different light then all other small conference schools. Average football fans across the nation know about the wacky team who plays on the weird colored field. And Boise has done it on the big Fiesta Bowl stage before. And because of these things, I don’t see the Fiesta Bowl letting Boise State get by them.

Of course their is a lot of football left to play. A lot of things could throw monkey wrenches in this whole scenario, and I could come back next week with something completely different. Look at things here, Arizona controls their own destiny in the PAC 10, Nebraska and Kansas State are fighting for a birth to the Big XII championship where they could beat Texas, Idaho has 7 wins and is going to a bowl game! This is why College Football is the most exciting and unique sport in the country.

Case Keenum for Heisman!

Ever Played Quarterback Before? GREAT!

How bad has it gotten for the football program at the University of Akron in Akron, Ohio? How about bad enough to recruit potential quarterbacks by running an ad in the school newspaper? I think they have just about reached their melting point. The year, like so many, started out with high hope for the Zips, but started going downhill after the first game. The Zip’s 3rd year starting quarterback, Chris Jacquemain was suspended indefinitely for an unspecified violation of team policy. Afterwards, sophmore Matt Rodgers took over the reigns only to suffer an ACL tear on October 10th. This now leaves the offense in the hands of freshman Patrick Nicely. His backups are fellow freshman Jared Wackerly and Student Coach Tim Zetts. Zetts played for the Zip’s in 2005 before transferring to Saginaw Valley State. He was injuried at SVS has one semester remaining on his eligibilty. Finally, it was reported yesterday that senior reciever Deryn Bowser would be out with a broken leg and sophomore linebacker Aaron Williams would be out with a broken arm. Both are out for the season. All in all Akron is missing 13 scholarship players for the season. This is a nightmare if you are a fan of the Zip’s, it is even more of a nightmare if you play for them. But don’t fret too long fans, basketball season is just around the corner and you have yourself a top 50 team…

Student Coach / QB Tim Zetts

LeGarrette Blount Post Game Fight

Oregon senior running back LeGarrette Blount doesn’t take nicely to taunting…From anyone. Blount knocked a Boise St. player to the ground after the player had come up and patted him on the shoulder pads. I am sure there were words exchanged as well because BSU Head Coach Chris Petersen came running over to try to defuse the situation. He was too late. As he was pulling his player back, Blount sucker punched him right on the chin. Blount obviously wasn’t kidding when he was quoted in Sports Illustrated as saying that Oregon “owed that team an ass-whuppin'”. Obviously Blount was bound and determined to get his ass-whuppin’ in no matter what. After being escorted off the field, he had to be restrained by the police because he was trying to go after the BSU fans. The fans for crying out loud! I don’t see how Blount will be playing in next weeks game. If he is lucky, he won’t get suspended for the entire season.

Congratulations LeGarrette, you just punched your ticket to the bench. Now, head to http://www.google.com and find the best anger management they have in Eugene.

And one more thing LeGarrette. How about you punch yourself in the face tonite for your 8 carries for -5 yards. You should have just stayed in the locker room at the half.

College Football Top 10 Games of the Week Preview

A guest post by Donk…

Thunder Treats college football analyst and guest poster, Donk, has provided us with a Top 10 must watch games for the first week of college football. Donk thought it necessary because he figured most dudes would be so excited to watch any football, that they might miss out on some of the most intriguing games. Thanks Donk, awesome job and you can expect to see a Top 10 each week here at Thunder Treats so make sure to check back!

1.

(5)ALABAMA VS. (7)VIRGINIA TECH
Can you say DEFENSE. Alabama and VaTech return a combined 15 starters on defense. Two of the toughest defenses from a year ago will square off against two quarterbacks that have a lot to prove. With the loss of Darren Evans on offseason, Tyrod Taylor will have added pressure putting point on the boards against Alabama, in the heart of SEC country.
Sept. 5th – 8:00 p.m. EST *Game played in Atlanta, GA

2.

(13)GEORGIA @ (9)OKLAHOMA STATE
A high powered, lights out defense to collide with a high powered star studded Oklahoma State offense. Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, and Kendall Hunter are all back trying to dethrone Oklahoma and Texas as the class of the Big 12 South. Georgia has big shoes to fill from last year with the losses of Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to the NFL. If the Cowboys find themselves behind at any point during the game, I expect Coach Mike Gundy to come through with a heated speech. Remember, he is a man, and he is 40. Well I guess he’s 42 now, but that still works.
Sept. 5th – 3:30 p.m. EST

3.

(16)OREGON @ (14)BOISE STATE
This will be a battle between the team with 4 million possible jersey combinations and the team that plays in blue jerseys camouflaged by the blue turf of Bronco Stadium. The Ducks’ have lots of talent on the offensive side of the ball, but with 4 new starters on the offensive line Oregon will win or lose the game in the trenches. Boise State coming off a 12 win season, will not surprise anyone this year, but the Broncos will be prepared to make a run for yet another BCS Bowl birth.
Sept. 3rd – 10:15 p.m. EST

4.

MISSOURI VS. ILLINOIS
This may be the Big 10’s best shot at winning a non conference game against a team from a Big conference. Starting in his 4th year at Illinois, Juice Williams will have one of college football’s most talented targets at his disposal, in Arrelious Benn. Mizzou lost all it’s star power with the losses of Chase Daniel, Chase Coffman, and Jeremy Maclin. Mizzou will have it’s hands full when Illinois makes the trip down to Missouri, somehome as the home team.
Sept. 5th – 3:40 p.m. EST *Game played in St. Louis, MO

5.

(20)B.Y.U @ (3)OKLAHOMA
Unless the Cougars can pull off the Hitch and Ladder and the Statue of Liberty play, Oklahoma may put this game out of reach quickly. As long as the Sooners can keep the BYU Sack Machine that is Jan Jorgensen away from Sam Bradford, the Sooners will have too many weapons for the Cougars to handle. Max Hall, who threw for 3957 yards and 35 TD’s last season will keep the OU defensive backs on their heels.
Sept. 5th – 7:00 p.m. EST

6.

CINCINATTI @ RUTGERS
The Big East Conference is up for grabs by several teams. Cincinnati, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida and Pittsburgh are all capable of taking the conference title and booking their tickets to the Orange Bowl. But which will it be. After stumbling out of the gates last season the Scarlet Knights ended the regular season with 7 straight wins. For Cincinnati, getting the ball in the hands of playmaker Mardy Gillyard will be crucial.
Sept. 7th – 4:00 p.m. EST

7.

MIAMI @ (18)FLORIDA STATE
Most schools use their non-conference schedule to add cupcake games against FCS teams or directional universities. Most teams won’t schedule their arch-rival in Week One, but that’s exactly what the Hurricanes and Seminoles have done. The two teams that dominated college football for much of the 90’s have fallen significantly over the past few years. Both teams are on the rebound, Miami coming off a 7-6 season including a bowl loss to Cal, and Florida State coming off a 9-4 season including a Citrus Bowl trouncing of Wisconsin.
Sept. 7th – 8:00 p.m. EST

8.

NEVADA @ (23)NOTRE DAME
Coming off a 8-6 season, and the program’s first bowl win in 15 years, Notre Dame is looking to get back to a BCS Bowl. Look for Jimmy Clausen to improve from his sophomore season, now that he has an offensive line to stand behind. Nevada who boasts on the best kept secrets in college football this year, Colin Kapernick, will not be a push over. Nevada returns 2651Rushing yards (Vai Tuau 1521 yards & Kaepernick 1130 yards) as well as 2849 Passing yards (Kaepernick). The expectations are high for Notre Dame this year (especially in Lou Holtz’s and Beano Cook’s senile eyes) but they better not be overlooking the Wolf pack.
Sept. 5th – 3:30 p.m. EST

9.

BAYLOR @ WAKE FOREST
The Bears are coming off a 4-8 season. Robert Griffin’s accumulated 2091 yards in the air and 843 on the ground in his freshman season. Griffin is an explosive dual threat quaterback that will continue to give sluggish Big 12 defenses nightmares. The Deamon Deacons future will rest squarely on the shoulders of Riley Skinner. Skinner is the winniest quarterback in school history as well as the ACC’s career completion percentage leader.
Sept. 5th – 3:30 p.m. EST

10.

(11)L.S.U. @ WASHINGTON
Coming off an 0-12 season, the Huskies can only improve from last season. With Locker healthy, Washington will at least be interesting to watch while on offense, escpecially with Steve Sarkesian calling the shots. LSU will once again will rely on their fast, shut down D. With some improved QB work from a year ago, LSU should have this one out of reach in a hurry.
Sept. 5th – 10:30 p.m. EST

Just Missed the Cut – (12)Cal @ Maryland, Navy @ (6)Ohio State, South Carolina @ NC State, Minnesota @ Syracuse, Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska.
* AP Rankings as of 9/1/2009

Tuesday’s Thunder Links

These Links bring the Thunder…

– DMB is ESPN’s Official College Football Band [Awful Announcing]

– Erin Andrews Still Being Victimized [Deadspin]

– The All New iStalker [Manofest]

– Memphis Athletics Apologizes for not Being Up on the Lingo [Friends of the Program]

– What, Exactly, Are the White Sox Thinking? [Rumors and Rants]

– The 40 Most Undeserving MLB Starting Lineup Figures Ever [Sharapova’s Thigh]

– Farmar Unhappy with His Role with the Lakers [No Guts, No Glory]

– Disney Buys Marvel; How Long Before we see This? [The Sports Hernia]

– The 15 Worst Gimmicks in the History of Pro Wrestling [Blog of Hilarity]

– The Best 40 Seconds of Tyson [Tirico Suave]

– For the Love of the Game [More Hardball]

– Kirk Herbstreit Defends “The Photo” [Waiting for Next Year]